Modelling the spread of diseases in animal populations 
  
Suzanne Touzeau 

INRA - Unité Biométrie et IA
(Agronomic Research Institute)
78352 Jouy-en-Josas Cedex, France 
Suzanne.Touzeau@jouy.inra.fr
     http://www.inra.fr/bia/J/ 


Infectious diseases in wild and managed animal populations have a manifold impact. They can affect human health through the consumption of infected animal products or the tranmission of zoonoses. In managed populations, they often cause serious economic losses because of heightened mortalities or drops in production. In wild populations, their influence on the ecosystem may be very destabilising. To study the spread of these diseases, mathematical models describing their effects on the population dynamics are a useful tool. They can provide a better understanding of the mechanisms involved in the transmission, in order to make predictions on the evolution of the outbreak, or to determine control strategies.
  
The aim of this session is to present such epidemic models, focused on the disease spread in wild or managed animal populations. The basic SIR models combine simple demographic and epidemic features within a population, but according to the applied problems, relevant components can be added such as: an age structure, a genetic structure, spatial heterogeneities, migrations, time delays, etc. Furthermore, sub-populations can be identified and several diseases or strains may compete in the population. A mathematical analysis gives an insight into the system behaviour, determining for example the existence of an endemic threshold, but may not be accessible for more complex models. Parameter estimation, simulations and the design of control strategies also provide useful information.


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